INDONESIA'S ECONOMIC STRUCTURE TRANSFORMATION 2026: FROM DEFENSIVE STABILITY TO ACCELERATED UPSTREAM PROCESSING AND AN INCLUSIVE DIGITAL ECONOMY
Keywords:
mineral downstreaming, inclusive digital economy, national reindustrialisation, structural transformation, Probis 2026, SME digitalisation, defensive stability, Asta Cita economyAbstract
This article analyses the transformation of Indonesia's economic structure in 2026, which will shift from a defensive stability strategy—with stable GDP growth of 5.11 per cent in 2025—towards accelerating upstream processing (mineral, energy and agricultural downstreaming) and an inclusive digital economy as pillars of national sovereignty. The method used in this study is a literature review. The results show that the downstreaming programme targets Rp3,464.5 trillion in investment to create 1 million jobs and USD50 billion in added value, while the digital ecosystem targets USD146 billion in the digitisation of 20 million MSMEs and equitable access in 3T regions. The integration of these two pillars, supported by the PDP Law regulations and Industry 4.0 upskilling, has the potential to increase the contribution of digital manufacturing to GDP to 35 per cent by 2030, although the challenges of regional disparities and human resources need to be addressed through the synergy of the state budget and green growth engines to achieve the 8 per cent growth target and Indonesia Emas.
Downloads
References
Abdurrahman, A. (2025). Extending the IBCDE framework to explore barriers and drivers in Indonesia’s digital economy. Journal of Digital Economy, 4, 123–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdec.2025.08.003
A’yun, I. Q., Anggraini, L., Asmara, G. D., & Khoirunnisa, R. M. (2024). Analysis of the Development of E-Commerce Transactions in the 6 Highest Transaction Countries in Southeast Asia. Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences, 8(2), 207–221. https://doi.org/10.18196/jerss.v8i2.22033
Dwipatna, I. M. J. A., Darwin, D., Andriani, S., Nugraha, P. A. D., & Wahyuningsih, A. N. (2025). Digital economy development in Eastern Indonesia: The infrastructure and socio-economic dimensions. Priviet Social Sciences Journal, 5(12), 32–44. https://doi.org/10.55942/pssj.v5i12.1040
Eliyah, E., & Aslan, A. (2025). STAKE’S EVALUATION MODEL: METODE PENELITIAN. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Indonesia, 3(2), Article 2.
Gomes, S., Lopes, J. M., & Ferreira, L. (2022). The impact of the digital economy on economic growth: The case of OECD countries. RAM. Revista de Administração Mackenzie, 23, eRAMD220029. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1590/1678-6971/eRAMD220029.en
Hojeghan, S. B., & Esfangareh, A. N. (2011). Digital economy and tourism impacts, influences and challenges. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, The 2nd International Geography Symposium-Mediterranean Evironment 2010, 19, 308–316. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2011.05.136
Ika, S. (2017). Kebijakan Hilirisasi Mineral: Policy Reform untuk Meningkatkan Penerimaan Negara. Kajian Ekonomi Dan Keuangan, 1(1), 42–67. https://doi.org/10.31685/kek.v1i1.259
Illahi, A. R. (2022). HILIRISASI PERTAMBANGAN DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP ASPEK EKONOMIS LINGKUNGAN HIDUP DI INDONESIA. Jurnal Justitia : Jurnal Ilmu Hukum Dan Humaniora, 9(3), 1436–1444. https://doi.org/10.31604/justitia.v9i3.1436-1444
Kehal, H. S., & Singh, V. P. (2005). Digital Economy: Impacts, Influences, and Challenges. Idea Group Inc (IGI).
Lubbe, W., Ham-Baloyi, W. ten, & Smit, K. (2020). The integrative literature review as a research method: A demonstration review of research on neurodevelopmental supportive care in preterm infants. Journal of Neonatal Nursing, 26(6), 308–315. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnn.2020.04.006
Luthviati, R. D., Putro, N. W. P., & Anggrahini, D. S. (2025). Why Sustainable Development Fails Without Ethical Public Governance Policies? Contrarius, 1(3), 232–244. https://doi.org/10.53955/contrarius.v1i3.216
Ma, X., Feng, X., Fu, D., Tong, J., & Ji, M. (2024). How does the digital economy impact sustainable development? —An empirical study from China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 434, 140079. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.140079
Meidyasari, S. (2024). The Impact of Digital Economy in Driving Economic Growth and Development in Indonesia. Interdiciplinary Journal and Hummanity (INJURITY), 3(11), 777–783. https://doi.org/10.58631/injurity.v3i11.1306
Prasetiani, D. N., Anindya, H. F., & Yoshe, A. S. (2024). Strategi Menghadapi Middle Income Trap: Dampak Hilirisasi Mineral terhadap Pendapatan Negara Indonesia Era Joko Widodo. Indonesia Foreign Policy Review, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14562414
Rong, K. (2022). Research agenda for the digital economy. Journal of Digital Economy, 1(1), 20–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdec.2022.08.004
Setyowati, E. P., & Atmanti, H. D. (2025). Economic and Technological Determinants of Transportation Sector Performance in Indonesia: A Panel Data Approach (2020–2024). Finance : International Journal of Management Finance, 2(4), 84–89. https://doi.org/10.62017/finance.v2i4.88
Sitohang, C., Azis, H., & Hafiz, M. S. (2025). Hilirisasi Komoditi Mineral: Studi Kasus Nikel di Indonesia. JURNAL ILMIAH EKONOMI DAN MANAJEMEN, 3(2), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.61722/jiem.v3i2.3755
Sokołowska, E. (2026). Introduction to the Digital Economy. In Inclusion and Innovation in the Digital Economy. Routledge.
Zhong, W., Wang, J., & Yang, Y. (2025). HETEROGENEOUS MULTI-SOURCE DATA INTEGRATION BASED ON THE MECHANISMS OF DATA FACTORIZATION AND MARKETIZATION. Journal of Digital Economy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdec.2025.11.002
Abdurrahman, A. (2025). Extending the IBCDE framework to explore barriers and drivers in Indonesia’s digital economy. Journal of Digital Economy, 4, 123–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdec.2025.08.003
A’yun, I. Q., Anggraini, L., Asmara, G. D., & Khoirunnisa, R. M. (2024). Analysis of the Development of E-Commerce Transactions in the 6 Highest Transaction Countries in Southeast Asia. Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences, 8(2), 207–221. https://doi.org/10.18196/jerss.v8i2.22033
Dwipatna, I. M. J. A., Darwin, D., Andriani, S., Nugraha, P. A. D., & Wahyuningsih, A. N. (2025). Digital economy development in Eastern Indonesia: The infrastructure and socio-economic dimensions. Priviet Social Sciences Journal, 5(12), 32–44. https://doi.org/10.55942/pssj.v5i12.1040
Eliyah, E., & Aslan, A. (2025). STAKE’S EVALUATION MODEL: METODE PENELITIAN. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Indonesia, 3(2), Article 2.
Gomes, S., Lopes, J. M., & Ferreira, L. (2022). The impact of the digital economy on economic growth: The case of OECD countries. RAM. Revista de Administração Mackenzie, 23, eRAMD220029. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1590/1678-6971/eRAMD220029.en
Hojeghan, S. B., & Esfangareh, A. N. (2011). Digital economy and tourism impacts, influences and challenges. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, The 2nd International Geography Symposium-Mediterranean Evironment 2010, 19, 308–316. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2011.05.136
Ika, S. (2017). Kebijakan Hilirisasi Mineral: Policy Reform untuk Meningkatkan Penerimaan Negara. Kajian Ekonomi Dan Keuangan, 1(1), 42–67. https://doi.org/10.31685/kek.v1i1.259
Illahi, A. R. (2022). HILIRISASI PERTAMBANGAN DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP ASPEK EKONOMIS LINGKUNGAN HIDUP DI INDONESIA. Jurnal Justitia : Jurnal Ilmu Hukum Dan Humaniora, 9(3), 1436–1444. https://doi.org/10.31604/justitia.v9i3.1436-1444
Kehal, H. S., & Singh, V. P. (2005). Digital Economy: Impacts, Influences, and Challenges. Idea Group Inc (IGI).
Lubbe, W., Ham-Baloyi, W. ten, & Smit, K. (2020). The integrative literature review as a research method: A demonstration review of research on neurodevelopmental supportive care in preterm infants. Journal of Neonatal Nursing, 26(6), 308–315. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnn.2020.04.006
Luthviati, R. D., Putro, N. W. P., & Anggrahini, D. S. (2025). Why Sustainable Development Fails Without Ethical Public Governance Policies? Contrarius, 1(3), 232–244. https://doi.org/10.53955/contrarius.v1i3.216
Ma, X., Feng, X., Fu, D., Tong, J., & Ji, M. (2024). How does the digital economy impact sustainable development? —An empirical study from China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 434, 140079. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.140079
Meidyasari, S. (2024). The Impact of Digital Economy in Driving Economic Growth and Development in Indonesia. Interdiciplinary Journal and Hummanity (INJURITY), 3(11), 777–783. https://doi.org/10.58631/injurity.v3i11.1306
Prasetiani, D. N., Anindya, H. F., & Yoshe, A. S. (2024). Strategi Menghadapi Middle Income Trap: Dampak Hilirisasi Mineral terhadap Pendapatan Negara Indonesia Era Joko Widodo. Indonesia Foreign Policy Review, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14562414
Rong, K. (2022). Research agenda for the digital economy. Journal of Digital Economy, 1(1), 20–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdec.2022.08.004
Setyowati, E. P., & Atmanti, H. D. (2025). Economic and Technological Determinants of Transportation Sector Performance in Indonesia: A Panel Data Approach (2020–2024). Finance : International Journal of Management Finance, 2(4), 84–89. https://doi.org/10.62017/finance.v2i4.88
Sitohang, C., Azis, H., & Hafiz, M. S. (2025). Hilirisasi Komoditi Mineral: Studi Kasus Nikel di Indonesia. JURNAL ILMIAH EKONOMI DAN MANAJEMEN, 3(2), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.61722/jiem.v3i2.3755
Sokołowska, E. (2026). Introduction to the Digital Economy. In Inclusion and Innovation in the Digital Economy. Routledge.
Zhong, W., Wang, J., & Yang, Y. (2025). HETEROGENEOUS MULTI-SOURCE DATA INTEGRATION BASED ON THE MECHANISMS OF DATA FACTORIZATION AND MARKETIZATION. Journal of Digital Economy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdec.2025.11.002
Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal. (2026). Probis hilirisasi kejar target investasi Rp3.464,5 T.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2025, August 5). Ekonomi Indonesia triwulan II-2025 tumbuh 4,04 persen (q-to-q); 5,12 persen (y-on-y).
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2025, November 5). Ekonomi Indonesia triwulan III-2025 tumbuh 5,04 persen (y-on-y).
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2026, February 5). Ekonomi Indonesia tahun 2025 tumbuh 5,11 persen.
Bank Indonesia. (2025, November 5). Ekonomi Indonesia triwulan III 2025 tumbuh 5,04%.
World Bank. (2023). Beyond unicorns: Harnessing digital technologies for inclusion in Indonesia.
World Bank. (2025a). Indonesia Economic Prospects: Digital reforms.
Kementerian Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian. (2026, February 21). Perekonomian Indonesia tetap tangguh, tumbuh 5,04% di triwulan III-2025.
Kementerian Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian. (2026, February 23). Perekonomian Indonesia 2025 tetap tangguh, stabilitas makro terjaga dan kualitas pertumbuhan meningkat.
Kementerian Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian. (2026, February 23). Strategi ekonomi 2026: Sinkronisasi APBN dan mesin pertumbuhan baru untuk perkuat fondasi pertumbuhan nasional.
