THE ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FOR THE SUSTAINABILITY OF GRAPE AGROTOURISM IN SANGGALANGIT VILLAGE, BULELENG REGENCY
Keywords:
Agrotourism, Grapes, Sustainability, Scenario, SMIC-Prob, Product Diversification, Farmer Participation, Sanggalangit VillageAbstract
This study aims to analyze potential scenarios for the sustainable development of grape-based agrotourism in Sanggalangit Village, Buleleng Regency, and to identify the most effective scenario model to support the sector's long-term sustainability. The research is motivated by the current dominance of a production system focused on wine-making, limited product diversification, low participation of young farmers, and suboptimal stakeholder collaboration particularly with the private sector. A descriptive quantitative approach was employed, utilizing the SMIC-Prob Expert method as a probabilistic scenario analysis tool. Data were collected through questionnaires, in-depth interviews, field observations, and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) involving 30 informants, including farmers, tourism managers, village and regency government representatives, and private sector actors such as Hatten Wines. Three main scenarios were analyzed: (1) maintaining the status quo of production, (2) market-driven product diversification, and (3) increasing local farmer participation, especially among the younger generation. The analysis reveals that the most favorable scenario is a combination of all three, with a stronger emphasis on product diversification and farmer participation. This integrated strategy is considered the most adaptive in responding to uncertainties while addressing structural challenges and leveraging development opportunities in grape-based agrotourism. Theoretically, the study reinforces the application of scenario analysis in local-based sustainable development planning. Practically, the findings offer guidance for policymakers and agrotourism stakeholders in designing training programs, facilitating innovation, and strengthening cross-sector collaboration to foster an inclusive and sustainable agrotourism ecosystem.
Downloads
References
Akhmad Fauzi, & Alex Oxtavianus. (2014). 445-2435-1-PB. Pengukuran Pembangunana Berkelanjutan Di Indonesia.
Ayu Nyoman Saskara, I., Putu Wiwin Setyari, N., Dewa Ayu Made Natasah Dewani, I., Made Marysha Dewi, D., & Putu Diah Merta Lestari, D. (2024). Prospective analysis of Simantri sustainability: A probability approach. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 27(1), 21–42. www.ejournal.uksw.edu/jeb
Ariani, N. M. P., & Utama, M. S. (2024). ANALISIS PENGARUH SEKTOR PARIWISATA DAN PDRB TERHADAP PAD KABUPATEN/KOTA DI PROVINSI BALI. E-Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Udayana, 13(03).
Atkisson, A. 1999, Believing Cassandra: An Optimist Looks at a Pessimist’s World. USA: Chelsea Green Publishing Company.
Ali, Mm., Hariyati, T., Yudestia Pratiwi, M., & Afifah Sekolah Tinggi Agama Islam Ibnu Rusyd Kotabumi, S. (2022). Metodologi Penelitian Kuantitatif Dan Penerapan Nya Dalam Penelitian. In Education Journal.2022 (Vol. 2, Issue 2).
Budiasa, I. W. (n.d.). KONSEP DAN POTENSI PENGEMBANGAN AGROWISATA DI BALI.
Daus. (2020). PARTISIPASI PETANI DALAM PENGEMBANGAN ECO-AGROWISATA DI SUBAK SEMBUNG KELURAHAN PEGUYANGAN KECAMATAN DENPASAR UTARA.
Dewani, I. D. A. M. N., Saskara, I. A. N., & Setyari, N. P. W. (2023). The role of stakeholders in the sustainability of the Simantri program in Tabanan. JPPI (Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan Indonesia), 9(2), 659–668.
Dermawanov, M. O., Sunardi, A. P., Arifa, H. T., & Annaba, A. R. (2024). Mitigasi Risiko Produksi Anggur Di Pusat Bibit Dan Edukasi Budidaya Anggur Tangerang Selatan. Sharia Agribusiness Journal, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.15408/saj.v1i1.38187
Dragulanescu, I. V., Lanfranchi, M., & Giannetto, C. (2016). Agritourism farm in rural development framework and environmental sustainability. Calitatea, 17(S1), 42.
Elvira, S., Putra, R. E., & Rahman, H. (2022). ANALISIS STATUS KEBERLANJUTAN AGROWISATA BERBASIS PERTANIAN BERKELANJUTAN: STUDI KASUS KEBUN STRAWBERRY UPANG. JSEP (Journal of Social and Agricultural Economics), 15(2), 123–136.
Fauzi, Akhmad. (2019). Teknik Analisis Keberlanjutan. Jakarta : PT. Gramedia Pustaka Utama.
Fuzi Akhmad, & Oxtavianus Alex. (n.d.). Pengukuran Pembangunan Berkelanjutan di Indonesia.
Gede, I., Joendra, D., Putra, S., Karmini, N. L., & Wenagama, W. (n.d.). E-JURNAL EKONOMI DAN BISNIS UNIVERSITAS UDAYANA. https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/EEB/index
Gibson, R. B. (2006). Sustainability assessment: Basic components of a practical approach. Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, 24(3), 170–182. https://doi.org/10.3152/147154606781765147
Gita Dewi Ayu, P., Made Kusuma Negara, I., & Gede Leli Kusuma Dewi, L. (2018). STRATEGI PENGEMBANGAN WINE TOURISM DI KABUPATEN BULELENG-BALI.
Gusti, I., Mira, A., Putri, A., Ayu, I., & Saskara, N. (2024). Skenario potensial pariwisata berkelanjutan melalui pemberdayaan perempuan: Analisis skenario SMIC-Prob untuk Desa Penglipuran, Bali, Indonesia. Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan Dan Pembangunan Daerah, 12(3), 2355–8520. https://doi.org/10.22437/ppd.v12i3.35575
Hapsoro, N. A., & Bangun, K. (n.d.). L A K A R PERKEMBANGAN PEMBANGUNAN BERKELANJUTAN DILIHAT DARI ASPEK EKONOMI DI INDONESIA.
Ingrassia, M., Altamore, L., Bellia, C., Grasso, G. Lo, Silva, P., Bacarella, S., Columba, P., & Chironi, S. (2022). Visitor’s motivational framework and wine routes’ contribution to sustainable agriculture and tourism. Sustainability, 14(19), 12082.
Lenaini, I., & Artikel, R. (2021). TEKNIK PENGAMBILAN SAMPEL PURPOSIVE DAN SNOWBALL SAMPLING INFO ARTIKEL ABSTRAK. 6(1), 33–39. https://doi.org/10.31764/historis.vXiY.4075
Luh Putu Yuni Widyastuti, & Ni Kadek Ema Sustia Dewi. (2023). Productivity and Brix value of Green Grapes (Vitis vinifera L var. Muscat Saint Vallier) at Different Location and Pruning Time in Buleleng Bali. SEAS (Sustainable Environment Agricultural Science), 7(2), 139–144. https://doi.org/10.22225/seas.7.2.8222.139-144
Made, N., Ariani, P., & Utama, M. S. (n.d.). E-JURNAL EKONOMI DAN BISNIS UNIVERSITAS UDAYANA ANALISIS PENGARUH SEKTOR PARIWISATA DAN PDRB TERHADAP PAD KABUPATEN/KOTA DI PROVINSI BALI. https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/EEB/index
Made, P., Widiningsih, W., Ayu, P., & Purwanti, P. (n.d.). ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI TINGKAT PENDAPATAN PEKERJA PADA KAWASAN AGROWISATA DI KABUPATEN GIANYAR
Medina, E., de Arce, R., & Mahía, R. (2015). Barriers to the investment in the Concentrated Solar Power sector in Morocco: A foresight approach using the Cross Impact Analysis for a large number of events. Futures, 71, 36–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.06.005
Nugraha, I. G. P. (2017). Pengembangan Agrowisata Anggur Berbasis Masyarakat Di Desa Banyupoh, Kecamatan Gerokgak, Kabupaten Buleleng-Bali. Jurnal Ilmu Sosial Dan Humaniora, 6(1), 20–30.
Nur Fadilah Amin, Sabaruddin Garancang, & Kamaluddin Abunawas. (2023). KONSEP UMUM POPULASI DAN SAMPEL DALAM PENELITIAN.
Pertiwi, T. A., Noechdijati, D., & Dharmawan, B. (2022). Analisis Kesediaan Membayar (Willingness to Pay) Pengunjung dalam Upaya Pengembangan Agrowisata “Sweetberry” di Kabupaten Cianjur. Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian Dan Agribisnis, 6(2), 500. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.jepa.2022.006.02.15
Putu Cintya Citra Devi, P., Kembar Sri Budhi, M., Wayan Wenagama, I., & Ekonomi Pembangunan Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, J. (2021). ANALISIS STRUKTUR PASAR KOMODITAS ANGGUR BALI DI TINGKAT KONSUMEN LOKAL DAN PASCA DIPROSES MENJADI WINE.
Putu Ristiati, N., Ayu Putu Suryanti, I., Putu Manik Widiyanti, N. L., Rai Sudiatmika, A., & Pradipta Utama, A. (2019). Characterization of endophyt fungi in bali grapevine (vitis vinifera l. var alphonso lavalle) in Buleleng, Bali. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1317(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1317/1/012083
Selma Hassan, W., Holtz, S., Tansey, J., & Whitelaw, G. (2005). ASSESSMENT ROBERT B. GIBSON Criteria and Processes.
Sugiyono. (2017). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif Dan R&D.
Suryawan. (2018). E-Jurnal Agribisnis dan Agrowisata Model Partisipasi Petani dalam Pengembangan Agrowisata di. 7(3). https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/JAA415
Wayan, N., Utami, A., Nur Efendi, M., Wayan, I., & Mahendra, E. (2023). STRATEGI PENGEMBANGAN WINE TOURISM DI HATTEN WINE BALI.
Wijayanti, D. E., & Priyanto, M. W. (2020). AGRISCIENCE PENGARUH URBANISASI TERHADAP LAHAN GARAPAN DI INDONESIA THE EFFECT OF URBANIZATION ON ARABLE LAND IN INDONESIA. https://journal.trunojoyo.ac.id/agriscience
